Episode 1405: The Rookie Mistake
Date July 17, 2019 Summary Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Meg’s visit to Cleveland, the Giants’ perplexing situation heading into the trade deadline, Edwin Jackson’s next destination, and the approaching addition of ads to MLB jerseys. Then they answer listener emails about whether Mike Trout’s popularity among stat-savvy fans stems from his lack of playoff appearances, the “strikeout player of the game,” whether clutch matters more at lower levels, whether players or coaches could try to doctor data in the age of tech-driven development, a Dallas Keuchel postgame comment, and showing sympathy for injured players, plus bat-dog discussion, a Stat Blast on pitchers who’ve thrown both immaculate innings and three-pitch innings, and a tribute to the late, great Rob McQuown, beloved Baseball Prospectus stat wizard. Topics * Mike Trout's popularity and relationship to the Angels' performance * Avoiding Mike Trout overexposure * 'Strikeout Player of the Game' promotion * Does clutch matter in lower levels of baseball? * Players or coaches fabricating/manipulating data * Dallas Keuchel's assessment of a 'so-so' pitch * Opposing team showing sympathy for injured players * Use of bat dogs * Immaculate and three-pitch innings * Tribute to Rob McQuown Intro Juliana Hatfield, "Everything's for Sale" Outro The Coral, "Answer Me" Banter * Meg returned from a trip to Cleveland where she went to the All-Star futures game. She and Ben discuss her time in Cleveland and revisit conversations about food that Ben and Sam had in the past. * San Francisco Giants (possible) changing plans for the trade deadline * Edwin Jackson was DFA'd by the Blue Jays. Ben wonders if this may finally be the end of his career. * Placement of advertisements on jerseys Email Questions * Tim: "How much of Mike Trout's popularity among hardcore baseball fans is that he is not always on the biggest stage? Don't the people who are constantly on the biggest stage eventually find themselves, fairly or not, hated by the opposition? If Meg, as a Mariners fan, constantly had to see Mike Trout making the playoffs over her team, wouldn't that diminish her enjoyment of his accomplishments?" * Oliver: "I’m currently sitting at an Akron Rubber Ducks game in the rain and something made my mind trail off. For each game, the Home team (Akron) labels one of the away players as the “Strikeout Player of the Game.” They announce this over the loud speakers before each of the hitters at bats. Do you think this would be more of a hinderance/distraction or more of a motivation for the hitter and/or pitcher? This particular at bat, the hitter proceeded to hit the second pitch on a line through to the left field for a single." * Charles: "I was just thinking about the way we look at clutch and momentum, that anyone who can make it to the Majors is probably relatively even-keeled at the plate/on the mound. But what about lower levels? If one of the main arguments against paying attention to it is that big leaguers are closer to robots than we are, does it make sense to consider it at other levels? How much should college recruiters take this into account? Or in drafting a rec softball team, should clutch concerns still just be a tie-breaker, or should it weigh much more into the decision making?" * T: "I recently finished listening to a two part episode of Gimlet's Reply All that examined the development of data into the New York police department's effort to fight crime which began with mapping pickpockets routes and ended with stop and frisk. You've at times pondered the dystopic. In the future, do you think players will try to "cheat the data" they way some cheat PED testing? Spin rate seems the easiest to conceive of as Bauer attempted to show in one start last season. In general, I'm thinking of an incentive structure in which it is to the mutual benefit of player and coach to doctor the data. For example, if the effectiveness of a minor league coach is determined by a "quota" whereby a coach's performance is judged by how many players increase velocity or spin rate by x percent, that coach would have incentive to cook the data, perhaps only to blame that players inevitable regression on injury or faulty mechanics. If Yonder Alonso might serve as an example, small samples increasingly get paid in a market where development isn't linear, but proceeds in dramatic changes in profile. Or in other words, in a newly disrupted market what is signal and what noise?" * Jimmy: "I got a kick out of this quote from Dallas Keuchel, in the gamer written in the Athletic by David O'Brien after the July 2nd loss of the Braves to the Phillies. Dallas Keuchel allowed the deciding two runs on a Jay Bruce double in a 2-0 loss. Here was Dallas' quote: "I mean, outside of a so-so slider away to Bruce — which wasn’t that bad of a pitch, it was just the wrong pitch, wrong location at the wrong time. He was swinging; I knew he was. I was trying to bait him off the plate, and he just got enough to get a double down the line." I just thought the assessment was funny that the pitch was "so-so" when it was by his reckoning the wrong pitch, wrong location, wrong time. Not to take away from Bruce who got a nice hit down the line. But doesn't that mean it was the worst possible pitch? Wrong pitch to throw, not sequenced well, and mislocated?" * Maximilian: "Can you see a world in which Luis Rengifo doesn’t make this tag? I was surprised I didn’t hear any grumbling that this tag was unsporting. Or see any hesitation on Rengifo’s part that he was tagging out an injured player who had beat him to the base. I’ve seen soccer matches where a team will kick the ball out of bounds to stop play when one of their players is hurt, and then after the ball is put back in play the opposing team will return it to the team with the injured player. (think I) have also seen it where the opposing team will even kick it out themselves..." * Jimmy: "A couple weeks back, Stephen Strasburg pitched an immaculate inning. I really enjoy when that happens because its just about as neat and tidy as you can be to do your job as a pitcher. 9 pitches, 9 strikes, 3 down. Well my friend just reminded me that Strasburg also has a 3 pitch inning in his career. September 29th 2017. Maybe should be called an Economical inning. A Parsimonious inning? (An Efficient inning doesn't work because that's common parlance all the time when the pitcher gets three outs on relatively few pitches). Depending on when pitches were tracked, how many pitchers have pitched both an Immaculate and an Economical innings in their career?" Stat Blast * Ben's Stat Blast is inspired by Jimmy's question about three pitch and immaculate innings. * There are 90 pitchers who have thrown an immaculate inning. There have been 162 economical innings. * 10 pitchers have thrown both an immaculate and economical inning. Notes * Meg says that if the Yankees are going to put advertisements on their jerseys then their players should be able to have beards. * Ben thinks that at the lower levels there is a bigger difference in the mental skills and preparedness of players, which could manifest as clutch-ness. * Meg is interested in the implications of fabricated data and how it could be used but thinks there are just too many people looking at the data for it to go unnoticed. * The Trenton Thunder use a bat dog to retrieve bats during games. There is a MLB rule that prohibits their use in the majors. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 1405: The Rookie Mistake * Mike Trout promotional video * Zooperstars Characters * Troubled Cone Stops the Press by Joseph Durso * Dallas Keuchel's 'So So' pitch * Piscotty leaves game with injury video * Rookie the Bat Dog * List of Immaculate Innings * List of three pitch innings * Rob McQuown's Baseball Prospectus Archive Category:Episodes Category:Email Episodes